Monday, November 14, 2011

What's Wrong with Banks

Nearly every Yahoo! Finance article has dozens of reader comments castigating bankers for the damage they have done to the U.S. economy. If this is the common wisdom, and the common wisdom is wrong, then what is the truth?

Theoretically, debit cards save consumers money by reducing their costs of holding cash. At least, this is what the bankers associations believe. But in order to feed their top and bottom lines, over the years bankers got themselves addicted to two kinds of fees: those they would levy on customers who were "bad", which is to say, those who overdrew their accounts; and fees charged to the merchant at the point of sale. Now that the U.S. has regulations curtailing both types of fees, the banks are finding themselves short of many billions of dollars of fees. So they have tried to make up the missing revenue through other fees. Bank of America, for example, is famous for saying that it would levy a $5 monthly fee on debit card users, only to rescind its plans when popular outrage made it clear that the fee would cost them too many accounts.

Let's start counting up the mistakes.

First, a debit card is not an asset, for most customers. Unlike paper cash, which provides a clear signal when it is being expended, debit cards make it much more difficult for the customer to track the drain on their bank balance. It makes overspending much easier. This benefits the merchant, because they can sell more goods, and it benefits the bank, which collects higher fees on the transaction, and which gets a small probability of collecting a penalty fee in the event the customer's account is overdrawn. The banker's theory that a debit card saves money for the customer makes the incorrect assumption that the customer's spending will be the same as when the same customer uses cash. Academic studies show that even savvy credit card holders spend more money when using a credit card than they do when using cash.

Debit cards were introduced as massive trickery in which retailers and banks colluded to induce consumers to overspend while shopping. They reduce time at the register, but by disconnecting the customer's budget sense during the payment process, they cause the customer to lose hundreds and thousands of dollars per year in spending that is unnecessary.

If you have $100 in your wallet and are about to buy an item that costs $40, if you have to use two of the five 20s in your wallet, you might decide to cancel the transaction and not buy at all. If you use a check, you might still compare the amount you are writing on the check with the cash in your wallet, but you will also think "I still have $100 in my wallet," making it feel like you aren't spending of your cash. If you use a debit card, you might not even notice that the total is $40. Hence it is very easy to let the transaction go through, because it barely feels like you are spending money at all.

A number of banking services that evolved between 1995 and 2010 are based on psychological tricks of this type. Customers believe they are rational, and are not. The banks get their services and fee structures approved because everyone, including regulators, assume that customers are rational, and they are not. The services are perhaps designed by the bank with full knowledge of the irrational behavior of customers, or perhaps it is just that some of them get lucky when they try random services, and they keep the profitable combinations, which just happen to have unpleasant side effects on customers.

Now, when I say irrational, I don't mean customers who act against their own best interest, or who are random or perverse. I mean that they act in ways that are chronicled in the psychology literature, things like helping their friends to do worse than they do on critical tests. Also, by not doing arithmetic when considering whether a purchase is in their budget. That's hardly a case of insanity or not. It is simply that rounding off numbers and doing the arithmetic in your head is much harder when using debit cards than it is when using cash. It isn't the bank's "fault" that you don't do this arithmetic. It just happens to be the beneficiary of your laziness.

You could also say that cash is like an automatic computer, because the supply of bills remaining in your wallet always matches the amount of money you have left (!!).

So if the bankers are evil, it is because they have marketeers that use the same tricks that Neiman Marcus, Saks, Wal-Mart, Nordstrom's, Sears, Dollar Tree, Kohl's, Bon Ton, Abercrombie, Safeway, Kroger, and thousands of other retailers and hucksters use to take your money and make you overspend your budget every day.

I've picked on debit cards here, but you can probably make the same case for other financial products, especially mortgages, that permit the customer to make a mistake.

You could go further, and discover that the existence of conservative banks doesn't help, because there will be banks that play at the margins. If the conservative bank turns down a mortgage applicant for a loan, but the bank of marginal behavior offers the same applicant a loan, who is the hero and who is the victim? Many, many community activists at one time or another, and perhaps now, would have castigated the conservative bank for failing to agree to the loan, and praised the marginal player. Where were these activists in the era of 100% loan-to-value? Shouldn't they have been out there trying to stop individuals and families from taking these loans from overly generous banks?

The same thinking applies to all risk-based banking products. Risky bankers ruin it for those with better values. Aggressive and marginal consumers are either taken advantage of by the bank, or taking advantage of the bank (and I don't see that you can make a definite case that one is more true than the other), and they ruin it for the rest of the customers who don't partake of the foolish banks nor present such banks with unusual risks.

Historically, banks have exploded over and over. The system tends to be unstable, with each success at systematizing any part of the process, reducing costs, and making things normal instead causing instabilities that tend to make the industry implode and sometimes take the economy with it. Government regulation has been tried repeatedly, but since this is just another attempt at systematization, it isn't clear that regulation will prevent the problem.

Since I try to write an objective blog, not a normative one, I will not prescribe a "fix" to the banking system or to specific elements, like debit cards. My task, as I see it, is to discover the hidden truths that self-interest and conventional thinking tend to obscure. Hence, my only recommendation is to be very open-minded about future events. Regulation of debit cards could result in their disappearance entirely, or in enormous shrinkage of their distribution. And maybe that would be a good thing for people, who cannot afford a payment mechanism that makes overspending so much easier than cash.

Sunday, November 13, 2011

Vorpal Trade: A Dramatization

Alice looked on with great interest as the King took an enormous memorandum-book out of his pocket, and began writing. A sudden thought struck her, and she took hold of the end of the pencil, which came some way over his shoulder, and began writing for him.

The poor King looked puzzled and unhappy, and struggled with the pencil for some time without saying anything; but Alice was too strong for him, and at last he panted out, 'My dear! I really must get a thinner pencil. I can't manage this one a bit; it writes all manner of things that I don't intend--'

'What manner of things?' said the Queen, looking over the book (in which Alice had put 'The white knight is sliding down the poker. He balances very badly') 'That's not a memorandum of your feelings!'

There was a book lying near Alice on the table, and while she sat watching the White King (for she was still a little anxious about him, and had the ink all ready to throw over him, in case he fainted again), she turned over the leaves, to find some part that she could read, '--for it's all in some language I don't know,' she said to herself.

It was like this.

YKCOWREBBAJ


sevot yhtils eht dna ,gillirb sawT'

ebaw eht ni elbmig dna eryg diD

,sevogorob eht erew ysmim llA

.ebargtuo shtar emom eht dnA


She puzzled over this for some time, but at last a bright thought struck her. 'Why, it's a Looking-glass book, of course! And if I hold it up to a glass, the words will all go the right way again.'

This was the poem that Alice read.


JABBERWOCKY

'Twas brillig, and the slithy toves

Did gyre and gimble in the wabe;

All mimsy were the borogoves,

And the mome raths outgrabe.


'Beware the Jabberwock, my son!

The jaws that bite, the claws that catch!

Beware the Jubjub bird, and shun

The frumious Bandersnatch!'


He took his vorpal sword in hand:

Long time the manxome foe he sought--

So rested he by the Tumtum tree,

And stood awhile in thought.


And as in uffish thought he stood,

The Jabberwock, with eyes of flame,

Came whiffling through the tulgey wood,

And burbled as it came!


One, two! One, two! And through and through

The vorpal blade went snicker-snack!

He left it dead, and with its head

He went galumphing back.


'And has thou slain the Jabberwock?

Come to my arms, my beamish boy!

O frabjous day! Callooh! Callay!'

He chortled in his joy.


'Twas brillig, and the slithy toves

Did gyre and gimble in the wabe;

All mimsy were the borogoves,

And the mome raths outgrabe.


'It seems very pretty,' she said when she had finished it, 'but it's rather hard to understand!' (You see she didn't like to confess, even to herself, that she couldn't make it out at all.) 'Somehow it seems to fill my head with ideas--only I don't exactly know what they are! However, somebody killed something: that's clear, at any rate--'

'But oh!' thought Alice, suddenly jumping up, 'if I don't make haste I shall have to go back through the Looking-glass, before I've seen what the rest of the house is like! Let's have a look at the garden first!' She was out of the room in a moment, and ran down stairs--or, at least, it wasn't exactly running, but a new invention of hers for getting down stairs quickly and easily, as Alice said to herself. She just kept the tips of her fingers on the hand-rail, and floated gently down without even touching the stairs with her feet; then she floated on through the hall, and would have gone straight out at the door in the same way, if she hadn't caught hold of the door-post. She was getting a little giddy with so much floating in the air, and was rather glad to find herself walking again in the natural way.

Why Common Wisdom is Wrong

It is implicitly assumed in a number of the articles posted here that the common view is wrong. That is why the blog exists: To find uncommon knowledge about the markets and uncover it. Take any popular, and especially political, belief about the economy, and I contend that the odds are highly likely that it is incorrect. Since that statement implies that you and I will be among a few voices speaking into the wind, it's worth examining the basis for our contrary perspective.

For background I will be using Stumbling on Happiness by Daniel Gilbert, a professor of psychology at Harvard University. Although the theme of this book is understanding happiness, it necessarily draws in many conclusions from the academic literature on psychology, much of which is, of course, based on hundreds or thousands of careful experiments on genuine human beings.

The first evidence is that people are inaccurate observers of themselves. Their ego-defense mechanisms create information that isn't true, by selecting carefully new information that is designed to support a pre-existing thesis that they are above average. This belief, that they are above average, is supported by having friends who aren't as skilled by comparison. Gilbert writes:

"If we can't find people who are doing more poorly than we are, we go out and create them. Volunteers in one study took a test and then were given an opportunity to provide hints that would either help or hinder a friend's performance on the same test. Although volunteers helped their friends when the test was described as a game, they actively hindered their friends when the test was described as an important measure of intellectual ability."

If you don't believe Gilbert, get his references list and look at the studies he is citing. For example, there is Some effects of task relevance and friendship on helping: You don't always help the one you like. For a broader survey, take a looks at Selective Exposure by Freedman and Sears. Or you can go to Lake Woebegone, where all of the children are above average.

Of course, this just scratches the surface of all the things people do to their own belief systems. Rationalization, scape-goating, selective exposure and many other subtle effects do enormous damage to the ability of people to see social and economic worlds accurately.

Even the Federal Reserve and its celebrated theoreticians may be reality-challenged. Friday, Caroline Baum wrote "Fed Theoreticians Need Some Real-World Feedback" for Bloomberg, citing an informal but enlightening survey she had done that proved that people have very strange and inaccurate perceptions of inflation ("Nobel Laureate Bob Lucas, Meet Randa the Psychic: Caroline Baum"). Unfortunately for the Fed, they have the double problem of measuring the inflation expectations of the market, which is, perhaps hopelessly wrong, at least among people asked for an opinion on the street.

How do address this, as investors trying to discover reality? Do we accept the results of Baum's survey at face value, that a woman business owner of 20 years believes that inflation is 20 percent? Perhaps some skepticism is in order. The response could be exaggerated because the woman recognizes that her response will be influential, and she is going for the dramatic lie to show her point. Perhaps she really believes that inflation is exactly at the government-measured level, but that prices of certain highly visible commodities have recently and only for a short time exhibited a 20 percent annual rate of inflation. That is, people may say crazy things to informal survey-takers, because the process of sampling their opinion distorts their communications, or gives them an incentive to distort. Perhaps they lie because it is suddenly in their interest to do so.

Or maybe lying is too strong a word. People have beliefs, and they stick to them. It takes an avalanche of new information to change their minds. The recent Nobel Prize in Chemistry was awarded to a Daniel Shechtman for his work in the discovery of quasicrystals, the same work that was ridiculed by colleagues for many years. Major advances in science regularly meet with disbelief and ridicule. The take up of plate tectonics theory in the geology community in the 1950s is frequently cited as an example of this phenomenon.

But back to this result that shows that people "help" their friends to be below average. Could this mean that:

  • Political policy designed to help disadvantaged groups actually causes them to be at a permanent disadvantage, so that advocates of political change can retain their superior starting position?
  • Institutional investors working in an office where they are graded by their performance tend to "un-help" their colleagues by giving them information that reduces their investment performance?
  • Everything you read on Seeking Alpha is a clever misdirection?
  • It is any mystery at all that the message boards on Yahoo! Finance contain very little of any utility?
  • Sell-side research from the large securities brokers has zero value, especially considering the order in which clients are exposed to it?

Friday, November 11, 2011

More on "Harbingers" of U.S. Doom

In the Lewis Vanity Fair article I reported on last week, a key topic was spending on public employee pensions. In the area of pension reforms, California seems to be lagging the rest of the U.S. Vauhini Vara writes in the Wall Street Journal (10/28/11, "California Moves to Ratchet Down Worker Pensions"):

"So far in 2011, 27 state legislatures have enacted significant retirement-system changes, following 21 states in 2010, according to the National Conference of State Legislatures."

If true, it seems that 48 states have already enacted retirement system changes, while California is still at a proposal stage and has yet to pass legislation. In its present form Jerry Brown's ideas are unlikely to garner enough support to pass the California legislature. This result, which seems to match the rest of Brown's experience since being elected, is very similar to the events of Schwarzenegger's administration.

Curious, I searched out the NCSL web site. Within a few minutes, I was able to find these two reports:


The first NCSL report, dated 9/29/11 contains within its Findings section the statement that was cited by Vara:

"Even more state legislatures enacted significant retirement system changes in 2011 than did so in 2010: 27 in 2011, compared with 21 in 2010. Since some states revisited the topic, in all, 40 states enacted significant revisions to at least one state retirement plan in 2010 or 2011. At the end of August, pending legislation on pension reform remained before the Massachusetts and Ohio legislatures, and the governors of California and New York had proposed changes that are likely to be considered later in 2011 or in 2012."

So the picture that emerges is that California is behind the rest of the country in reforming its public employee retirement system. Clearly, you cannot treat actions there as a leading indicator. Regardless of the outcome, whether good for taxpayers or public employees, the key point is that other states have already been there and done that.

Wednesday, November 2, 2011

Inflation Coming, Don't Worry

According to Forbes, Bernanke is saying "It's Jobs, Not Inflation, Stupid." With one party in the U.S. concerned that the Fed's quantitative easing will go too far and result in inflation, Bernanke is clearly signaling that the problem is jobs, not inflation. Dummies.

This sounds like what we wrote a little over two weeks ago ('Twist'counting the Future). If the Fed is going to err, they will have more margin on the inflation side. Therefore, they will err, we will get inflation, and those holding U.S. currency will find that their buying power has been eroded.

Although inflation is not fun, we haven't really had any in a long time. Everyone who had direct experience with real inflation, last seen circa 1981, is now 30 years older. Average annual inflation has averaged just 2% for about 15 years now, as measured using the U.S. Government's standard definitions. People in their 20s and 30s have never lived through an inflationary period. Few of us have any recent painful memories to dissuade us from policies that might cause it. And if you were to take the position that we should use an alternative definition that results in a higher rate, then since we're already in that kind of inflation, why not set monetary policy so that all of the measures of inflation are posting serious numbers, and get some jobs started in time for the 2012 Presidential election? (Forbes columnist Kenneth Fisher should be all over this one, as historical equities market records show that monetary policy is typically goosed to create jobs and inflation just prior to elections in Presidential years.)

To illustrate how inflation hasn't been around for a long time, I went Googling for an image of inflation rates since 1970. It was a hard chart to find. Most inflation charts stop at 2000, or 1990, or show some irrelevant inflation measure in healthcare (different topic, must skip for now) or other noise. I finally found this one (scroll down to see it) which shows the peak around 1980 and subsequent "collapse" in inflation rates.

Overall, inflation is bad for lenders, good for debtors. If you have to make a normative judgment, then you might say that at the present time a little inflation would be good for U.S. consumers, who on average hold too much debt. Inflation works wonders on real assets that are highly leveraged, like, say, houses, as the value rises but the amount owed remains fixed. If we were to get 1970s inflation again, with 7 to 10 years of rapidly increasing prices, then everyone who owns a house now and holds onto it will be wealthy by 2020.