Wednesday, May 2, 2012

Trading Psychology Revealed by Share Buybacks

Share buybacks by companies stir up the emotions of some traders. It is a telling sign. Why would something as mundane as a change in the denominator get traders so stirred up? Perhaps this is one way to tell the difference between an investor and a trader:  The investor looks at the relative price to value, while the trader looks for various technical factors surrounding the transaction. As to whether share buybacks are good or bad, the trader will almost always label them as "bad," while the investor will ask about the price relative to book value or enterprise value.

The pseudonymous "Jaded Consumer" writing at Seeking Alpha seems to have caught Motley Fool's Rick Smith thinking like a trader:
http://seekingalpha.com/article/549621-why-american-capital-is-buying-american-capital

For reference, here is the original Fool article, which doesn't really make a valuation-based case for criticizing an American Capital Strategies share buyback:
http://www.fool.com/investing/general/2012/04/12/2-stocks-that-are-wasting-your-money.aspx

In this situation, we have what might look like a turnabout:  The supposedly sensible Motley Fool writer has been found to be trading, while the pseudonymous "Jaded Consumer" is offering much clearer thinking, and better writing as well.

It is worth mentioning that none of my comments here are intended to reflect on the relative merits of investing in AAPL or ACAS.

No comments:

Post a Comment