Thursday, October 22, 2020

Sorry for the long hiatus.

A lot has changed in the last six years. On the other hand, some things have not. People tend not to change, at least not rapidly. What has changed in the world is the rise of illiberal university paradigms.

Since this is a fundamental change in the political arena that could have an impact on investment valuation, the character of this blog will change slightly to incorporate more results from the non-finance environment. As I always intended in the earlier entries to the blog, I will approach investment valuation from a fundamental numeric perspective while considering economic and societal trends. What will change is that I will be drawing more from political economy, with the idea of getting well ahead of the market by anticipating developments in the legal and political arena. These developments will, of course, draw from observations of campus events, academic trends, theoretical and practical political economy, and so on. National election politics, being short-term, controversial, and likely already built into market prices, will NOT be a focus of the blog. I have nothing normative to say about whether to vote for Biden or Trump, and I presently don't have any privileged insights into how the election will impact equity or bond prices. If it occurs in the future that I mention election topics in the blog, it will be from an objective standpoint, with any normative flavor being purely accidental.

The investment information marketplace has also changed in the past six years. As always, the distribution of information is such that advantages don't last long, or are secrets that can't be given away. If you suspect that my best ideas don't make it into the blog, you might be right. But it's not clear that either of us will know what those were until well after the fact. If you want lots of "book talking", you can try Seeking Alpha. There are pockets of Reddit that may offer other insights that could help you maintain a superior equity theory.

So why bother with this blog? There are at least three reasons. First, I want to sharpen my own thoughts, and publishing them is one of the best ways I've found of doing that. There is something about the process of taking a thought, theory, and set of data and presenting an argument from them that causes the ideas to become clearer, better defined, and more robust. And, at least for the moment, no one is reading this blog anyway. So for a while, I get to have my cake and eat it too:  I can sharpen my thinking, display it, and profit from it well before the market becomes wise.

The second reason is that there are many, many other investors out there that share my temperament. I'd rather know you, have a dialog or debate, and enjoy your company. Without this blog, we may never meet. To make contact, you can always comment, or you can reach me on Twitter @PolarizedCenter.

Thirdly, the blog establishes a record of research that can be consulted by all of us, including me. That's worthwhile, to see how investment ideas shape up and evolve over time. 

Thank you for your attention, and best of luck as we invest forward together.


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