Friday, June 24, 2022

Two Roads to Contrarian Practice

The old proverb The road to hell is paved with good intentions has roots in human psychology, in perfectionism (Powers 2005) [1] and ethical intent valuation (Kruger 2004) [2]. The Powers study indicates that perfectionism backfires:

The results of both studies revealed a significant backfire effect of the implementation intentions on goal progress for participants high on a particular dimension of perfectionism (socially prescribed perfectionism). These perfectionists reported doing significantly worse at reaching their personal goals when they were asked to formulate implementation intentions than when they completed a control exercise. There also was evidence that implementation planning aroused negative affect for socially prescribed perfectionists. These results are the first to suggest that implementation planning may be contra-indicated for individuals with self-critical tendencies.

Kruger and Gilovich have argued that

Actions and intentions do not always align. Individuals often have good intentions that they fail to fulfill. The studies presented here suggest that actors and observers differ in the weight they assign to intentions when deciding whether an individual possesses a desirable trait. Participants were more likely to give themselves credit for their intentions than they were to give others credit for theirs...

But these studies, which cover only part of the phenomenon, may fall short in other ways, as pointed out by (Gioia 2021)[3]:

The assumptions we have typically used to formulate our theories and conduct our research have led us to be seen as irrelevant by an audience we should want to engage. Consequently, our approach to research and writing has put us on a road to hell. 

In other words, the intentions of researchers may be good, but their results, well...

So let's step away from academics for a moment. After all, you and I could probably come up with better stories about why this is true: People plan to be better than they actually are, and they fail to make sure that what they are doing is actually a good thing in its outcome. That happens because generating the intended result is hard. Having an intention is 100 times easier than following through in full, measuring the result, checking, and having the outcome audited by a third party. If you are measured by your words rather than outcomes, which is usually the case for most elite public intellectuals, then outcomes don't matter much to your reputation, salary increase, or Twitter follower count.

The Road to Heaven

One can take Nietzsche's aphorism from Twilight of the Idols

Out of life's school of war: What does not destroy me makes me stronger.*

and use it to flip the traditional proverb on its head to get

The road to heaven is paved with the bad intentions of others.

This a near-perfect copy of one of my first tweets on Twitter, and remains pinned today because I still feel it is subtle and profound. What this says is

When circumstances, the universe, or other people put obstacles in your path, your ethical and thoughtful response to them not only sets you up for success, but gives you moral authority and superior character.

This seems to be easily misinterpreted. Typically, someone will come with a Nazi-based example or a health problem to disprove it. But notice that by contradicting the saying or attempting to thwart it with rhetoric, they are fulfilling the implied prophecy of success through prolonged conflict!

The point is simply one should expect obstacles in any project, and by overcoming them you build character and succeed. If you are declaring a scientific hypothesis, the worst thing that could happen is that no one challenges it, until you have to go public. Instead, you need as many challenges of the hypothesis as soon as possible. If the challenges succeed then you have the raw data you need to revise the hypothesis. Your hypothesis gets better by being challenged, not by being accepted.

Contrarianism of the Road

The power of such proverbs is that they contradict naive common sense with a much more nuanced and useful understanding. When a politician says that their policy will help you ("road to hell"), you should be highly suspicious and check for the unintended consequences that they almost certainly are overlooking, probably on purpose. Conversely, when you encounter lemons ("road to heaven"), look for ways to not only make lemonade, but also to grow lemon trees, found a beverage company, cure scurvy, and create a line of skin care products using lemon oil.

[This is the first article in a series on contrarianism.]

* There is a useful answer to a StackExchange question that is worth reading about this aphorism. Some contend that the aphorism is widely misunderstood. It may be the case that Nietzsche's purpose is not fulfilled by the popular understanding, but that doesn't mean that the popular understanding, in its more nuanced form, is not useful as well.

References

1.   Powers, T. A., Koestner, R., & Topciu, R. A. (2005). Implementation Intentions, Perfectionism, and Goal Progress: Perhaps the Road to Hell Is Paved With Good Intentions. Personality and Social Psychology Bulletin, 31(7), 902–912. https://doi.org/10.1177/0146167204272311

2. Kruger, J., & Gilovich, T. (2004). Actions, intentions, and self-assessment: the road to self-enhancement is paved with good intentions. Personality & social psychology bulletin, 30(3), 328–339. https://doi.org/10.1177/0146167203259932

3. Gioia, D. (2021). On the road to hell: Why academia is viewed as irrelevant to practicing managers. Academy of Management Discoveries, (ja). Published Online:19 Oct 2021. https://doi.org/10.5465/amd.2021.0200

P.S.: If you search online for "road to heaven" most of the hits will be more recent than October 2020. But there is one question that was asked on Quora in 2014 that uses this phrasing. If you look at the log of that question, it looks like no one answers the question about heaven, preferring to focus on the traditional "road to hell" proverb and its meaning.

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